In this calculation, Keidanren has attempted to analyze how certain factors affected increases or decreases in CO₂ emissions by industry as a whole, based on records of CO₂ emissions and of production output and/or sales submitted by each industry. The analysis was carried out primarily to assist in grasping the broad trends, and will be followed hereafter by continued efforts to examine other methods of evaluation, including those that contribute to improved accuracy.

Results of calculation

Emissions of CO₂ in fiscal 1999 were 0.1% lower than in fiscal 1990. Keidanren estimates that this change was attributable to the following factors.

Improvements in electric power consumption per unit output	-2.2%
Efforts by the respective industries	-2.1%
Economic expansion etc.	+4.2%
Total	-0.1%

Approach to calculations

1. By multiplying the input-per-unit-output ratios for production output and/or revenues in fiscal 1990 by actual production output and/or revenues in fiscal 1999, we arrived at BaU emissions for each industry in fiscal 1999 (i.e., emissions in fiscal 1999, assuming that the input-per-unit-output ratios in question remained unchanged in that year from fiscal 1990). Based on this, we calculated the Keidanren estimate of emissions on a "BaU" basis (499.05 million t-CO₂).

2. Subtracting actual Keidanren emissions in fiscal 1999 from Keidanren "BaU" emissions resulted in a value of 20.4 million t-CO₂, which we defined as the reductions achieved by Keidanren as a whole through its efforts to reduce emissions. We then expressed this as a ratio, by dividing it by actual Keidanren emissions in fiscal 1990, which gave us a figure of -4.3% (1990 emissions = 479.07 million t-CO₂).

3. To isolate reductions that resulted from changes in electric power input per unit output, we used the electric power input-per-unit-output ratio in fiscal 1990 of 0.102 kg-C/kWh to calculate BaU emissions by industry in fiscal 1999 (i.e., emissions in fiscal 1999, assuming that the input-per-unit-of-output ratio in question remained unchanged in that year from fiscal 1990). Based on this, we calculated the Keidanren estimate of emissions on an "electric power BaU" basis, arriving at a figure of 489.06 million t-CO₂.

4. Subtracting actual Keidanren emissions in fiscal 1999 from the Keidanren "electric power BaU" figure resulted in a value of 10.41 million t-CO₂, which we defined as reductions resulting from improvements in the electric power input-per-unit-of-output ratio. We then expressed this reduction as a ratio, by dividing it by actual Keidanren emissions in fiscal 1990, which gave us a figure of -2.2% (1990 emissions = 479.07 million t-CO₂).

5. Subtracting the reduction in emissions attributable to lower electric power inputs per unit output (-2.2%) from the reductions in emissions attributable to Keidanren's overall efforts (-4.3%) resulted in a figure of -2.1%, which we defined as being derived from "efforts by the respective industries."

6. Subtracting the reductions in emissions attributable to Keidanren's overall efforts (-4.3%) from the change in emissions between fiscal 1990 and fiscal 1999 (-0.1%) resulted in a figure of +4.2%, which we defined as being derived from "economic expansion etc."