Chatham House Remarks

The Japanese Economy and
Europe-Japan Relations

Shoichiro Toyoda

Chairman
Keidanren


Thank you, Lord Jenkin, ladies and gentlemen,
I am honored to be here at Chatham House.
I have been looking forward to this opportunity to talk with you about issues of mutual concern.

In my remarks, I will bring you up to date about the Japanese economy. And I will discuss the economic relationship between Europe and Japan.

Frankly, I wish I had better economic news to report about Japan. Unfortunately, most of my news is about serious economic issues that Japan faces.
But I can tell you that Japan finally is beginning to come to terms with those issues. We finally are beginning to take concrete measures to cope with those issues. And those measures will provide a basis for renewed economic vitality in the years ahead. An economically healthier Japan will be a better partner for Europe.
It will be better able to cooperate actively and effectively in pursuing common interests with partners in Europe and around the world.

Let's begin with a brief overview of the Japanese economy. A foreign friend of mine has suggested that Japan is sailing in uncharted waters both economically and politically.

Economic growth in Japan has been less than 1% a year for the past three years.
Personal consumption has been weak, and so has capital spending.

Japan's unemployment rate has reached 3.2%. That might not sound high by European standards. But it is the highest level ever since Japan has been keeping records. Another big problem is the bad loans and scandals at Japanese banks and other financial institutions.

These problems that I am describing have obscured the fundamental strength of the Japanese economy. So our most pressing job is to reaffirm that strength and to get the economy growing again.

The government is taking strong action. It has lowered the official discount rate to 0.5%, which is the lowest level in the world.
And it has implemented six packages of fiscal stimuli since 1992. Those packages have included 45 trillion yen, or 280 billion pounds, in stepped-up spending on public works projects.

The latest package, announced in September, is the biggest fiscal package of 14 trillion yen, ever implemented in Japan. It includes 8 trillion yen, or 50 billion pounds, in fiscal measures that will generate real demand within one year.

Those measures owe a lot to strong calls from Keidanren and other members of the private-sector. They promise to make a real contribution to economic recovery.

Business people in Japan are becoming more positive about the economic outlook. The yen has moved toward a more reasonable valuation. And pretax earnings at large Japanese corporations will be up strongly in the fiscal year to March.

I am optimistic an economic upturn will get under way gradually next year if the government implements the fiscal measures fully. Production will tend upward in some sectors. Capital spending and personal consumption will begin to recover.

Of course, that assumes that the yen does not appreciate again to an excessive level. Japan's recovery would falter if the yen rose again to the level it reached in April. So I want to call on the monetary authorities in leading nations to work together to maintain stable exchange rates.

Meanwhile, Japan's government and banks are working out a plan for dealing with the problem of bad loans. They are beginning with measures for reorganizing the so-called Jusen lenders. Those are big institutions that were supposed to specialize in home loans, but got into trouble through unwise lending.

I expect them to work out a basic solution by the end of this month. Then, we will be over the hump in resolving that crisis.

Clearly, we need to resolve the crisis sooner rather than later or it will only worsen. We at Keidanren are in favor of using public money to help resolve the crisis. But we support that measure only to the extent necessary to protect depositors at failed banks.

I want to emphasize that the perception that all Japanese banks have serious problems is completely mistaken. The problem of bad loans varies in severity among the different banks. But several of the bigger banks even could write off all their bad loans at once.

I also want to emphasize that the problems at Daiwa Bank actually had nothing to do with the problem of bad loans. Japan's banks and financial authorities need to move ahead quickly with concrete measures for restoring confidence in our financial system. Those measures should center on promoting disclosure and transparency.

They should give top priority to letting the market mechanism work. That includes making all participants fully responsible for the consequences of their business and financial decisions.

I have been talking about individual issues. But they all are part of a much larger challenge for Japan.

That is, our nation must become a more pleasant and fulfilling place to live. And it must become a more attractive place for companies from around the world to do business.

To be sure, Japan has become the second biggest economy in the world. But that growth has not brought a corresponding improvement in the quality of life for Japanese.

We need to have a major shift in the pattern of economic and social life in Japan. Specifically, regulatory guidelines must give way to free-market forces. Government must give way to the private-sector. The central government must give way to our prefectures and municipalities.

At Keidanren, we are drawing up concrete proposals for bringing about that kind of shift in the life of our nation. We will complete our work and make it public next January.

Our proposals will call for a wide, social coalition. People in private-sector business, in academia, in the arts must join hands to shape a new vision for Japanese society. We in civic society must work together to shape a more fulfilling social framework for our nation.

We must shape a society where people in all walks of life can participate freely and actively. We must position our society to benefit from the creative input of men and women, young and old, physically robust and physically challenged, rich and poor.

Our vision must encompass the world and the place of Japan in the world. Our nation must work hand in hand with the industrialized nations of Europe and North America to build and maintain a global framework for peace and prosperity. We must share our skills and resources freely in tackling global issues with those nations and in supporting sustainable development. Japan can make an especially valuable contribution through government assistance and private-sector investment, through experience and know-how in environmental protection, and through science and technology. And we should be especially alert to share of our resources in those areas.

So Japan needs to become more open-both internally and to the world. The biggest obstacle to overcome in our efforts to open Japan is the over-regulation of the Japanese economy. I have designated deregulation my highest priority as chairman of Keidanren. We cannot revitalize our economy and build a globally viable nation without drawing fully on the energy of the private-sector.

We must tap that energy by clearing away regulations that stand in the way of free and healthy private-sector activity. We must clear the way for new industries and new markets to emerge and grow. And we must encourage venture capital to nurture those industries and markets.

In the same spirit, we must rework Japan's tax code. We also must take steps to cultivate a new generation of creative and imaginative Japanese.

But deregulation is the key. And deregulation is just as important in fulfilling Japan's international responsibilities as in revitalizing its domestic economy. Deregulation will make Japan more open to foreign products and to foreign investment. It will create business opportunities for companies around the world. The Japanese government took a step forward in March. That was when it announced a five-year program for eliminating or relaxing regulations on more than one thousand items. And it took another step forward when it accelerated that program by shortening the program to three years.

60% of the program will be complete by the end of this fiscal year in March. Already, it is making Japan's market more open and making life easier for Japanese consumers.

For example, reforming the rules for automotive inspections has reduced the cost and trouble of owning a car in Japan. The government has extended the period between vehicle inspections. And it has reduced the number of items that are subject to periodic inspection. Likewise, reforming the regulations on acquiring cellular telephones has led to explosive growth in that market.

And further deregulation is on the way. Japan is moving to deregulate domestic airfares- at least within a specified range. That will bring fares down-closer to the levels that are common in other nations.

In another sector, the government will eliminate provisions next year that have restricted retail price competition in over-the-counter health products. That also will lead to lower prices for consumers.

As I have said, the present three-year program for deregulation is a step forward. But it is only a step.

We need to review and expand the program each year. For example, the present measures do not go nearly far enough in the sectors of finance and agriculture. And they leave in place too many restrictions on pricing and market access in various sectors. Those restrictions reflect the false belief that government needs to take responsibility for managing the balance between supply and demand.

People in Europe and North America are concerned that deregulation could founder amid the lack of political leadership in Japan and in the face of bureaucratic opposition. They have good cause for that concern. But I want to assure you that we in the private-sector will do everything possible to make sure that deregulation moves ahead. In October, we at Keidanren issued a report on Japan's progress in implementing the program and a proposal for expanding it further.

We reaffirmed our commitment to supporting and implementing deregulation in every way possible. And we continue to work closely with the third-party advisory committee that is monitoring the government's deregulation program.

Demands for deregulation in Japan also emerged from the high-level meeting of the European Commission in November. We look forward to working with our European counterparts in promoting deregulation. We are especially eager to benefit from the experience of the United Kingdom, which has an impressive record in deregulation.

That brings me to my second main subject for today: the subject of relations between Europe and Japan.

The European Union is the most advanced of the regional economic groupings that have taken shape in the world. Other groupings include the North American Free-Trade Agreement, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the Mercosur grouping in South America, and several other arrangements.

All those groupings can be a positive development in terms of promoting free trade and investment. They can be a positive development as long as we all remain committed to multilateral free trade.

The EU and Japan share a strong common interest in strengthening the system of world trade through the World Trade Organization. So let us work together to coordinate regional initiatives with the larger goals and guidelines of the WTO.

Earlier this year, the U.S.-Japan negotiations in the automotive sector reminded me anew of the importance of the Europe-Japan partnership. European nations exercised a good influence on those negotiations. They spoke out forcefully about the importance of free trade when the U.S. government threatened unilateral sanctions.

In the future, we must work hard to resolve business issues in the private-sector. We must keep them from becoming political issues.

You can be sure Japan's big automakers will be doing their best to resolve business issues in a business-like manner. They will make good on the commitments they made apart from the negotiations.

That is, they will increase their local purchasing all around the world.

The United Kingdom has been especially receptive to business with Japan since the late 1980's. You have conducted promotional campaigns under such names as Opportunity Japan, Priority Japan, and Action Japan.

Relations between our nations have become a model for promoting bilateral ties. And today, the United Kingdom is host to nearly 40% of all Japanese investment in the EU.

But Japanese ties also are growing with companies in other European nations. And business relations between Japan and Europe will continue to broaden and deepen.

To promote those relations, we need to supplement the activities of individual companies with joint efforts at the industry level. We need to develop channels for communication between top executives in Europe and Japan.

That is why we are here on this mission. We have come to develop closer relations with government officials, with industry representatives, and with Commissioners and senior officials in Brussels.

Promising joint work already is under way between Europe and Japan. That includes work on a multilateral investment agreement and on developing rules for telecommunications and other sectors. It includes efforts to promote the kind of cooperation that we already enjoy in electronics and automobiles.

I also perceive immense potential for cooperation between the EU and Japan in third-country markets. That kind of cooperation will be a subject of discussion next week at the Ditchley Park conference, which Commonwealth Development Corporation and Keidanren are sponsoring jointly.

Some of my European friends have suggested that Japan concentrates too much on the United States. I think we will see a better balance in Japan's international relations. That balance will improve as we cultivate closer ties between Europe and Japan at the corporate level and at the industry level. And we can improve that balance further still by promoting equally vigorous exchange in non-business sectors, such as science, education, and culture. In all our cooperation, we should be careful to maintain a global perspective. That includes working together to strengthen the world trading system through the World Trade Organization, as I have mentioned.

Reinforcing the WTO framework will depend heavily on promoting free trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific. Countries in that region continue to display the most dynamic economic growth in the world.

And the driving force in that growth is trade and investment among private-sector companies. It is free and vigorous economic activity that transcends national borders.

The APEC members reaffirmed their commitment to free and open trade and investment last month in Osaka. They drew up an Action Agenda for implementing the Bogor Declaration. That declaration provides for opening markets completely by the year 2010 in the industrialized economies and by the year 2020 in the developing economies. An important purpose of APEC is to improve the business environment for private-sector companies. And Japan needs to lead the way by pushing ahead with deregulation and with market-opening measures.

The most important consideration is to translate prosperity and progress in the Asia-Pacific into progress for the entire world. APEC is a loose regional grouping led by the private-sector. It is completely open to all nations in all other regions.

I hope that APEC members can develop a dialogue with European nations and with the European Commission. I hope they can work together on a framework and rules for multilateral trade and investment in the context of the WTO.

In closing, let me report that this has been our most productive mission ever to Europe. Today is the last day of a ten-day visit. And every day has been an instructive and eye-opening experience.

Most important, our visit has been an opportunity to identify new possibilities for cooperation. The time has come to forge a strategic partnership between Europe and Japan. The world faces a great number of very serious issues of global proportions. Europeans and Japanese need to work together to address those issues.

We need to work together to defuse regional tensions and to eliminate poverty. We need to work hand in hand to safeguard the global environment.

We also need to co-operate to safeguard global markets from the threat of protectionism. In those and other ways, let us make the most of our partnership. Let us dedicate ourselves to serving the greater good of people and industry in Europe, in Japan, and around the world.

Thank you.


Home Page in English