SAITO Hiroshi
Chairman of the Board of Councillors
Keidanren
Professor Lester C. Thurow's recent work on "The Future of Capitalism" offers very enlightening reading. Prof. Thurow is a well-recognized, leading scholar of economics in the United States. The dominant theme underlying this book is; "the eternal verities of capitalism--growth, full employment, financial stability, rising real wages--seem to be vanishing just as the enemies of capitalism vanish. Something within capitalism has changed to be causing these results. Something has to be changed to alter these unacceptable results if capitalism is to survive. But what is 'it'? And 'how' can 'it' be changed?"
Though space available here is obviously much too limited to allow a more detailed introduction of his considered opinions, Prof. Thurow's diverse views on the Japanese economy, backed up by the main theses of his firm espousal, are of significant value to us.
In the preface written for the Japanese edition, he makes his diagnosis on a fairly pessimistic note, stating that "lying ahead of Japan is a set of required changes that will be far larger than those required by the bubble economy and its aftermath," "in the last half century Japan has been the most successful of the world's industrial countries. The changes that are now underway are so fundamental, however, that what worked in the last fifty years is unlikely to work in the next fifty years," "but by virtue of its past success, it will be very difficult for Japan to recognize that the world has changed," and "to make necessary changes even when it does recognize." I feel that what emerges from these diagnoses are some negative lessons for us--scenarios of what it ought not to be. Drawing upon two concepts of "plate tectonics" from geology and "punctuated equilibrium" from biology, however, Prof. Thurow makes very convincing cases in his analysis of the dynamics of the new economy.
It seems that "The Future of Capitalism" challenges us with the pressing need for an in-depth recognition of the Japanese crisis and necessary measures to counter it. As such, I recommend that this book should be widely read.